Calculator of COVID-19
Modeling and Forecasting:
Last updated: 22 January 2020 (relevant data at the end of the day 21 January 2020)
Comments:
To build forecasts, there are used data relevant to UTC + 0 (zero GMT). The quality of forecasting is critically dependent on the quality of the input data. It is important that the cases of infection, recovery and deaths data are synchronized, and a unified method of their collection is used, which, unfortunately, is not always observed. Jumps or even negative values are regularly observed in the data, which reflect the peculiar properties of statistical accounting in a given country, rather than the real picture. Figures by summary indicators are automatically generated based on daily data, therefore, there are possible minimal deviations from officially published figures. All countries use the same model. The difference lies in the coefficients that are configured individually for each country. For questions about the operation of the service, please contact: svivanov@itmo.ru
Italy
| MODELING RESULTS | |
|---|---|
| The number of estimated days of the epidemic | |
| Model accuracy | |
| INFECTED PATIENT | |
| Number of infected patients (model + forecast), base scenario | |
| Number of infected patients during the measurement period (model) | |
| Error modeling during the measurement period (model) | |
| Error modeling during the measurement period (model), % | |
| RECOVERED PATIENT | |
| Number of recovered patients (model + forecast), base scenario | |
| Number of recovered patients during the measurement period (model) | |
| Error modeling during the measurement period (model) | |
| Error modeling during the measurement period (model), % | |
| DEATHS | |
| Number of deaths (model + forecast), base scenario | |
| Number of deaths during the measurement period (model) | |
| Error modeling during the measurement period (model) | |
| Error modeling during the measurement period (model), % | |
Isolation Scenarios:
Calculation results
| INFECTED PATIENT | |
|---|---|
| Number of infected patients (model + forecast), base scenario | |
| Number of infected patients (scenario with new measures) | |
| RECOVERED PATIENT | |
| Number of recovered patients (model + forecast), base scenario | |
| Number of recovered patients (scenario with new measures) | |
| DEATHS | |
| Number of deaths (model + forecast), base scenario | |
| Number of deaths (scenario with new measures) | |