Университет ИТМО

Calculator of COVID-19

Modeling and Forecasting:

Last updated: 22 January 2020 (relevant data at the end of the day 21 January 2020)
Number of infected patients 88081
Number of recovered patients 82492
Number of deaths 4610
To build forecasts, there are used data relevant to UTC + 0 (zero GMT). The quality of forecasting is critically dependent on the quality of the input data. It is important that the cases of infection, recovery and deaths data are synchronized, and a unified method of their collection is used, which, unfortunately, is not always observed. Jumps or even negative values are regularly observed in the data, which reflect the peculiar properties of statistical accounting in a given country, rather than the real picture. Figures by summary indicators are automatically generated based on daily data, therefore, there are possible minimal deviations from officially published figures. All countries use the same model. The difference lies in the coefficients that are configured individually for each country. For questions about the operation of the service, please contact: svivanov@itmo.ru

Isolation Scenarios:

The value 0 corresponds to the baseline scenario for a given country TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALREADY TAKEN MEASURES. The current measures are either strengthened or weakened in other scenarios in accordance with the following logic
  • Total quarantine (+1 value): maximum quarantine measures which are relative to the current level
  • Ordinary life (value -1): the most weakened isolation measures which are consistent with conventional ARVI control measures
* these estimates are expert, because the current situation is unprecedented and historical analogies cannot be drawn